Going main stream, organically speaking

While reading this, forget for a moment that “organic” is an ill-defined term and the Organic Trade Association’s just released research report is admittedly biased. The Association’s prediction of a bright future for organic meat, dairy and other products probably hits somewhere in the rough neighborhood of the truth. But their conclusion is based on a too-narrow survey of closely allied industry research organizations and long-time member companies.

Here are a few of things the Association sees by 2025 in their slightly tainted crystal ball:

• Recognizing that their current huge growth rate is based on a small base which makes their current impressive 20% annual increase a not-so-difficult achievement, they forecast slower sales increases over the next 20 years.
• By 2025, 14% of the average U.S. household's budget will be devoted to purchasing organic products.
• The average consumer household in 2025 will buy some organic products on a regular basis.
• Organic products will be sold everywhere by 2025 and increased food sales in restaurants can be expected.
• In one of their shakiest predictions, they claim younger shoppers will continue to be interested in organic foods, particularly as Gen Xers pass down their belief systems. Let’s be honest about this “maybe/maybe not” statement. Every generation chooses its own prejudices. Gen Xers will try to pass on their “truths” to their children; the kids will take it with a grain of salt and do their own thing.
• Ethnic shoppers, including Asian-Americans and Hispanic-Americans, will continue to be more likely to buy organic than the general population; a term that’s a generally accepted code for Caucasian, an ethnic group that will also be a hyphenated minority in 2025.
• Increases in organic sales will result in increased U.S. organic farm acreage and, in a plea to future generations of politicians charged with pork barrel politics,
• Government support of organic agriculture will be crucial to maintain the industry's growth potential. Looking at the decreasing supports and entitlements in the current version of the Ag Bill, OTA has some serious long term lobbying ahead.

In 2025, organic meat, dairy products, alcohol, and "stage of life" foods (those consumed during pregnancy, nursing, infancy, puberty, and senior years) will be most popular, according to survey respondents. The current buzz word for most of these products might be “neutraceuticals,” foods that are supposed to help remedy real or imagined health problems or to fit special “stage of life” nutritional requirements.

Because hectic lifestyles will continue to be the norm, OTA predicts convenience, ready-to-eat and prepared foods will proliferate. Personally, though, I’m having a problem accepting the idea of organic prepared foods. The concept strikes me as an oxymoron. Survey respondents also predicted growing interest in organic items that mimic conventional food brands and in organic products perceived by consumers as providing health benefits

Survey participants predicted that shopping for organic items will be commonplace in 2025, and it will no longer be considered on the fringe to "go organic." From certified organic cream-filled snack cakes (Little Debbie, are you listening?) to pet foods and edible packaging, most products might have an organic version 20 years from now.

2005 Survey participants included the Natural Marketing Institute, Nutrition Business Journal, Organic Valley, Packaged Facts, Smucker Quality Beverages, SPINS, Stonyfield Farm and The Hartman Group. A complete copy of the study is available online at www.ota.com/pics/documents/Forecasting2005.pdf.

Download the report and read it with skepticism. After factoring out the way too obvious prejudices, you’ll still learn a lot about the future of food.

Happy Holidays.