Time for my mid-terms

At the beginning of the year, I joined a lot of other dime store fortune tellers and made a few predictions for 2005. Now, it’s time for mid-terms to see how well (or poorly) I’m doing. Please allow me to do one of those fist-pumping, bottom-of-the-ninth, walk-off home run trips around the bases when I’m right. In return, I’ll personally kick my own fanny when I’m wrong.

1. McPlastic – The fast fooders find credit cards so successful that they’ll begin offering their own affinity cards. A McDonald’s Visa card with Ronald McDonald’s picture anyone? Or a Wendy’s MasterCard featuring the dearly departed Dave?

My lead off pitch and it never crossed the plate. Yet. I’m still betting on the Oracles of Oak Brook to see the huge financial opportunity and take a big swing at this one.

2. Grain – Whole grain, that is. After a half decade of being Atkinized out of favor, artisanal breads make a comeback touting the health benefits of whole grains. Pass a slice of the nine-grain “made with cracked whole wheat, rye and corn meal, oats, rye flour, soy grits, barley flakes, millet and flaxseed” bread please.

Yes, ma’am and thank you! The baking business is back and whole grains are good for you again. It has to be true, the USDA’s new food “Pyramid” (see item #9) says so. Panera Bread and all the cereal makers in Battle Creek are jumping on this little marketing bonanza.

3. Soda – The diet variety will far surpass its high fructose cousins in total sales. A #3 super-sized with a Diet Coke will not trim the waist line, however, even if you use McPlastic. Is aspartame really better for you than corn syrup?

Let’s call this one a walk with no one on base. It’s neither a two bagger nor a strike out. I was looking for a major change in buying habits. Instead, I got a brush back pitch.

4. Juices - Fruit “drinks” that contain as little as 0% real juice will be “outted” as outrageous imposters, especially after the contents (odd ingredients like wood ester) are revealed. For those not in the juice or chewing gum business, wood ester is used as an emulsifier or stabilizer and it’s a close relative of pine tar.

I’m impressed. Fruit drinks that contain 0% fruit juices seem to be re-inventing themselves as healthy-for-you “flavored” waters. Finally, truth in labeling. We’re looking at marketing wizardry here although some might call it marketing flim-flammery. Good thing – they’re not defining themselves as fruit juices anymore. Bad thing – it’s still an excuse to sell water for $12 gallon.

5. Organics – Organics and “all natural” foods grab more and more shelf space as echo boomers, the newest generation of young adults who are replaying their grandparent’s hippy generation attitudes, want to return to the romance of an agrarian society no one ever knew. A new pure food and drug act, anyone?

Yahoo and hang on for the ride! That most recent famous Texan, the mad cow, is helping make organic meat a mainstream product. “All natural” is headed for the big leagues. Main stream supermarkets are scrambling to grab a piece of the action.

6. Cereality – It’s a back-to-the-fifties, comfort-food-for-breakfast concept that’s just finding its sea legs. Could it be the next Starbucks? Could Kellogg’s be any happier and why didn’t some bright light in Battle Creek come up with this idea in the first place?

I’m ready to bet the farm on this one. Somebody tell me where to send the mortgage to my house. I want to be a major investor! Even the management team trying to control this runaway horse is amazed at how wide spread its appeal is…students( of course), housewives, children, Wall Street bigwigs looking for breakfast as well as big bucks. It’s a grand slam.

7. Coffee – Speaking of Starbucks, after putting a coffee shop on every other street corner and in most of the Target stores in North America, they’ll finally hit the wall. Over-stored in most markets and facing stiffer competition from local mom and pops and regional chains like Gloria Jean’s Gourmet Coffee and Peet’s as well as a decline in overall consumption, they’ll put the brakes on U.S. expansion as their overseas stores start to take off.

I think I’m right, I think I’m right…time to bring in the relief pitcher but I can still win this game. Starbucks is working hard on overseas expansion, let’s see how it effects their North American domination plans.

8. Donuts – If the coffee craze hits the wall, can the donut craze that swept the country with the expansion of Krispy Kreme be far behind? No. KK with its accounting irregularities diverting management’s attention goes down hard. Dunkin’ Donuts weathered the KK marketing storm and survive quite nicely, thank you. Great cuppa joe there, too.

KK had its 15 minutes of fame and their corporate offices now resemble the Kuwaiti oil fields at the end of the first Gulf War. This time the feds are burning down the house. Donuts move back to the minors after a fast “cuppa coffee” in the bigs.

9. Food Pyramid – The USDA issues a new food pyramid which might not even be a pyramid this time. It satisfies no one in the food industry but everyone starts to introduce products that are at the top of whatever the new shape might be.

OK, it might still be a pyramid but it appears to have been hand-built by that infamous old committee of blind men who tried to figure out what an elephant was. Whole grains won. Everything else might have taken a step back. Nobody is sure, yet, so let’s wait until December for what will probably be a called third strike.

10. RFID – Driven by Wal-mart, Albertsons, Target and Britain's Tesco, all large marketers who want to pass some of their distribution costs back to the suppliers, RFID gets some traction and the food industry will rush to climb aboard a fast accelerating bandwagon.

RFID is still gaining traction. Wal-Mart demands it. Traceability requires it. The Department of Defense has already mandated it. It’s outta here and time for the seventh inning stretch.

11. Beverages – We’re a nation of hard-drinking caffeine lovers so what can possibly replace coffee, Red Bull and Mountain Dew? Teas and enhanced waters, that’s what. Had a cup of chai lately? This tea-based second cousin to a latte should hit it big this summer as a cold, refreshing, beat-the-heat drink. Pick up a cup at Starbucks, the tea store? Look for more “water, caffeine added” at your local supermarket, too.

Flavored waters,“ water, caffeine added,” Starbucks’ Chai – we are a nation of heavy drinkers. Here’s proof positive that we’ve finally overdone it and reached wretched excess. Cadillac has just introduced a new high tech option for serial slurpers: cup holders that can either heat or cool your “go cup” at the flip of a switch. Does anybody actually use their teeth anymore? Other than to chew those tapioca blobs at the bottom of bubble tea?

12. FAT – Hardee’s started it with their Monster Thickburger, a full day’s supply of almost everything that’s bad for you in one enormous sandwich: 2/3 pound of certified Angus beef, three slices of American cheese, a half dozen slices of bacon, mayonnaise, butter-flavored shortening on a sesame seed bun that crushes the fat-o-meter at 1418 wide bodied calories. The food industry rediscovers the joys of serving their biggest consumers (pun absolutely intended}, switches to stealth mode and quietly tip-toes after an extremely lucrative market.

Damn, I’m good! Hardee’s burger sales jump. Sister QSR Carl’s Jr. sells the same stuff and posts numbers that are off the scale. Burger King intros a breakfast sandwich that knocks it out of the park, calorie- and sales-wise. Paris Hilton caps it off with an already legendary commercial that ties up soft core porn, Bentleys and big burgers in the world’s sexiest car wash.